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With little evidence from economic reports that the Fed is about to turn its very easy monetary cycle, equities are continuing to grind higher, while the dollar is consolidating after recent broad-based losses as gold and silver are reach new highs for the week.  US equity market participants took Ben Bernanke’s statements prior and during his press conference to mean that risk was green lit, and asset prices would continue to rise until the Fed believed that growth was self sustainable.

Thursday’s soft Q1 GDP report and an unexpected spike in jobless claims to a 3-month high underlined perceptions that an ultra-easy Fed policy stance will be maintained for longer.   Q1 GDP growth rose 1.8%, or slightly below consensus, but excluding inventories, real final domestic sales fell to just 0.9%, down from 3.2% in Q4 and a 2010 quarterly average of 2.9%. Excluding the effect of an outsized 11.7% drop in government defense spending, which resulted in an -1.1% drag from the public sector on overall GDP growth, the pace of real domestic activity still halved to 1.6% in Q1 against 3.3% in the fourth quarter.

The Dow received a boost after strong earnings from CAT.  Caterpillar Inc.’s first-quarter profit rose to a record level, as strong global demand helped the heavy-equipment maker overcome rising material costs.  The company, which handily beat expectations, raised its full-year sales and profit outlook on the belief that global economic trends will continue to drive demand.   This lead the SPDR Industrials (XLI) to reach a new 52-week highs. Shares were higher as one investor buys 100,000 Jun 40 calls at 44 cents each. The ETF, which holds industrial names from the S&P 500, is up 6.2 percent during the past 8 days.

The Russell 2000 Index which is up nearly 2% for the week and made multiyear highs, has seen solid options action on Friday.  (.RUT) sees a May 910 – 920 call spread is sold at 30 cents, 11500X. The spread has traded more than 30,000X and as an opening trade. The May 910 calls are 6.8 percent out-of-the-money and May options expire in three weeks.

Dovish Fed Powers Strong Equity Earnings

Outside the US, Euro zone data release Friday included CPI coming in above expectations and confidence indicators all below the prior month and forecasts. CPI was at a 2-½ year high at 2.8% versus March’s 2.6%.  German 2 year bund yields moved higher on the news, as this should stoke ECB inflation concerns.  In addition to euro zone unemployment, which came in as expected, unchanged from March, at 9.9%, all 4 measures of confidence came in below expectations, a potentially soft sign for forthcoming data releases.  Euro volatility has edged off of the bottom, and given the high level of inflation in the Euro zone, could be considered relatively cheap.

Dovish Fed Powers Strong Equity Earnings

Stocks moved higher after Federal Reserve officials concluded their latest meeting and signaled no real changes in monetary policy. As expected, rates were left unchanged. The Fed also said it was ending its QE2 bond buyback program amid signs of mounting inflationary pressures. However, the outlook for 2011 growth was reduced and officials retained their pledge to keep rates low for an “extended period”. Extended period has now been defined as several FOMC meetings. 

Beyond the Fed, the early focus was on a March Durable Goods report that was a better-than-expected 2.5 percent. Economists were expecting 1.8 percent. The profit news remains mostly supportive as well, with Amazon.com (AMZN), Corning (GLW), and Dow component Boeing (BA) seeing post-earnings gains today.

Home Depot shares are up and notable trade in the Jan 2013 calls as the $35 strike is purchased 3,000x and the $45 call sold 6,000. This 1×2 was done for a $2.40 net debit and appears to be opening transaction.  

Baker Hughes (BHI) climbed touching new 52-week highs today after the oil driller reported earnings of 87 cents per share, which was 9 cents better-than-expected. In options action, a noteworthy options spread traded after an investor sold 14,000 July 65 calls at $12.925 each and bought 20,000 July 75 calls at $5.50.

 The US equity markets continue to grind higher, and a weak dollar continues to make riskier assets more attractive.  The Bullish Dollar Fund (UUP) is down  fell to new 52-week lows late-Wednesday, as the dollar buckles under another round of selling pressure today. The EUR/USD currency pair is now trading at 1.4775 and levels not seen since late-2009. In the dollar fund, trading is brisk, with 62,000 calls and 46,000 puts on the tape so far. The biggest trade is a 20,000-contract block of June 21 puts at 27 cents when the bid-ask was 27 to 29 cents.

Stocks Surge and the Dollar Falls After FOMC Statement

The Australian dollar reached new 29-year highs against the dollar after stronger-than-expected Q1 CPI figures reinforced RBA rate hike expectations. Australian Q1 headline inflation rose 1.6%QoQ, against 1.2% expected, lifting the 12-month rate up to a 2-year high of 3.3%. The closely monitored RBA trimmed mean CPI rose 0.9%QoQ, against market expectations of a 0.7% print, which put the annual rate at 2.3%. AUD/USD rallied to a 1.0852 high as the figures reinforced expectations of RBA tightening in H2. The next major region of resistance/options barriers lies in 1.0885-1.0900 and may well be breached if an ultra-accommodative Fed supports a reflationary, buy-on-dips risk market bias today.

The VIX was whipsawed today moving up nearly 3 percentage points prior to the FOMC meeting and then slamming lower as equity price shot up after it became obvious that the Fed would continue a dovish stance.

Equity markets rallied on the back of continued solid earnings and better than expected data points in the housing sector.  Today’s better than expected consumer confidence also boosted investor sentiment.  Low interest rates in the US and a continued slide of the US dollar buoyed stocks, as the carry trade makes riskier assets more attractive.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.9%, to finish at 12595.37, a fresh three-year high. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index rose 11.99 points, or 0.9%, to 1347.24, while the Nasdaq Composite added 21.66 points, or 0.8%, to 2847.54. The broad advances put the S&P 500 at its highest since June 2008, while the Nasdaq Composite is just 12 points off a 10-year high.

 A falling US dollar continues to help stocks.  The dollar fell nearly 1% against a broad basket of currencies this week, following a drop of similar size last week. The U.S. Dollar Index closed at its lowest level since August 2008, before the financial crisis intensified.

The main driver for the dollar’s decline is low interest rates in the U.S. compared with higher and rising rates abroad. In Europe, the ECB increased interest rates recently, making its currency more attractive.  Lower rates mean a lower return on cash and the pressure from that factor could intensify next week when the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee is expected to signal that U.S. short-term rates will likely remain near zero for many months to come. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to give the central bank’s first-ever press conference following a policy-setting meeting.

Gain in equities came amid an uptick in U.S. consumer sentiment, with the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence registering its second-highest reading since the downturn in 2008.

Technology shares increased as AMD shares climbed. 30,000 calls and 5,160 puts traded on the chipmaker today. June 9 calls are seeing impressive volume. 21,750 contracts traded vs. 13,499 in open interest. 88 percent traded at the ask, including a 14,822-contract block at 45 cents on ISE when the market was 43 to 45 cents.

Stocks Surge on Strong Consumer Confidence

On the downside, SLV Silver shares trust, iShares lost ground as silver faces an aggressive round of profit-taking today. Silver had seen a three-month 75 percent surge prior to today. The metal is trading down on heavy volume. Meanwhile, SLV, which notched a new high of $47 per share and 1.4 million options traded on the ETF Monday, continues to see active trading. 230,000 calls and 217,000 puts so far. The top trade is a May 35 – 37 (2X1) put ratio spread at 3 cents, 10000X, and might have been initiated by a shareholder to help hedge recent gains. Or, it might be a straight bearish bet targeting $35 per share over the next 24 days.

The VIX climbed slightly to close near 15.60, after touching a low late last week near 14.60.

Volatility in the options market declined during the week despite a jolt early in the week after S&P announced that it was placing the US on negative watch.  The VIX was unable to break through the 19% resistance level, and was sold into breaking to new lows as the equity markets rallied during the balance of the week.  The VIX has found support near the 14 .50 level.

Overall equity prices performed well in the holiday shorten week, rebounding from a swoon after S&P put the US on negative watch.  The Dow and S&P 500 climbed over 1%, while the Nasdaq 100 outperformed moving higher by nearly 3%.

Apple shares surged higher touching the 360 level after the technology titan released better than expected earnings.   Option volume was heavy, with 322K calls and 232K puts on the tape. Upside strikes are the focus, with May 350 and 360 calls leading the volume and implied volatility up slightly. Weeklies were also busy.

Apple on Wednesday posted a quarterly profit of $5.99 billion, up 95% from $3.07 billion in the year-earlier quarter. Revenue rose 83% to $24.67 billion, while gross margin rose to 41.4% from 38.5%.  Apple’s quarter was helped by sales of the iPhone. The company began selling its iPhone 4 through Verizon Wireless in February, its second carrier in the U.S. after an exclusive arrangement with AT&T Inc. ended.

Yahoo (YHOO), which gained 4.7 percent on earnings news yesterday, edged down a nickel to $16.83. One options investor sold the Jul 18 – Oct 16 bullish risk-reversal at 47 cents, 9500X. It was tied to 703K shares at $16.79 and appears to be opening. While open interest is sufficient to cover in both contracts, most of the interest in the Oct 16 puts is from Monday when 10K were sold at $1.45. They’re being sold again today at $1.19, which looks to be a bullish position.

Sandisk (SNDK) is up .66 cents to above $49 and it looks like one or more investors is accumulating a position in May 52.5 – 55 call spreads ahead of earnings. The top trade is 2000 of the May 52.5 – 55 call spreads at 59 cents on ISE. 12,500 now traded. Sentiment data and side-of-market suggest bullish vertical spreads are being opened ahead of the profit report. Shares sank 8.8 percent on 1/28 after earnings were last reported.

Markets Edge Higher as Earning Continue to Surprise

Xerox option flow was heavy after this morning’s earnings, with shares down about 4% to $10.40 in heavy volume of 23 Million shares. July 9 puts are the focus, with a buyer paying 13.6 cents for nearly 30K.

Global Economic Data of Mention – Next Week:

  • Monday – US Pending Home Sales (1400 GMT)
  • Tuesday – Australia CPI (130 GMT), US Case Shiller (1300 GMT)
  • Wednesday – German CPI, EMU Industrial Orders (900 GMT), US Durable Goods (1230 GMT), RBNZ interest Rate Decision (2100 GMT)
  • Thursday – BOJ Interest Rate Decision, German Unemployment (755 GMT), US GDP (1230 GMT)
  • Friday – EMU employment rate (900 GMT), US Personal Income/Spending (1230 GMT)

US equity markets soared on the back of better than expected earnings, robust economic data, and positive European debt news in the form of a successful Spanish Auction.  Benchmark technology sector stocks release impressive earnings yesterday after the US closed, which spilled over into day’s trading session.

On the earnings front, Intel blew past 1Q expectations and gave a surprisingly strong 2Q revenue view in the face of what had been conventional wisdom about supposedly weak desktop and laptop demand. Intel reported record quarterly results and provided better-than-expected second-quarter guidance, benefiting from strong growth in all of its product segments and bucking worries about weakening personal computer sales.

IBM’s first-quarter earnings grew 10%, beating expectations, as the tech giant posted improved margins and broad revenue growth.  Yahoo’s first-quarter earnings fell 28% as the Internet heavyweight continues to contend with revenue-sharing costs hurting its top line.

In economic news that was pertinent, existing-home sales in the US increased 3.7% from a month earlier to a annual rate of 5.10 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.  Economists surveyed had expected home sales to rise by 2.5% to an annual rate of 5.0 million. The median sales price for an existing home was $159,600, down 5.9% from the revised year-ago median price of $169,600.

Commodity prices also moved higher sending commodity orient stocks such as miners, producers and refiners higher.  Gold prices touched a new all time high and Silver pushed above the $44 dollar per ounce level.  Oil prices moved higher pushing through resistance  near 110.00 and close near the 111 level after the Department of Energy released strong inventory numbers.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by  2.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 357.0 million barrels, analyst had expected crude oil investor’s to build. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week and are  in the  lower limit of the average range.  The combination of high demand and low supply is driving the gasoline markets higher.  Both finished gasoline inventories  and blending components inventories  decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels last week.  The bullish fundamental data is driving oil prices higher.

Options action was significant with iShares Gold touching a new 52- week high of $146.84 and option volume is 2.5X with call volume of 220,000 contracts swamping the 56,000 of puts traded. The volume is being driven by a few notable big blocks that appear to be rolling up of bullish positions; in the front month May the $140 calls saw a 20k block go at the $7.05 asking price at the same time a 27,500 of the $145 calls traded at the $3.28 asking price. In the Jan 2012 Leap saw the $115/$135 call spread trade 26,150 times at $16.30 in what looks like a roll up of a bullish position (sold to close $115 and bought to open $135) that was established over the course of three days in mid January when GLD was trading around $134 a share.

Heavy Option Action on Gold and Silver as Equities Surge Higher

Flow in the SLV Flow in the iShares Silver ETF was just as heavy as gold, as shares set another all-time high and the underlying metal continues to climb toward the $50 level. Nearly 870,000 option contracts have traded today, with May 45 calls the most active and ATM IV[30d] up nearly 3points to 40%. Nearly $130million in call premium has traded, triple the daily average, with the largest trade of the day involving the May 34-36 put spread, bought 25,000x for 13cents on the NYSE Arca exchange.

The VIX volatility index surged to new 2011 lows at riskier assets rose in value.  The Index was capped by resistance near 19 after S&P put US debt on negative watch.  The Index seemed to hold support levels near the 14.90 level, despite creating a new low print near 14.30.

Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services Inc. cut its outlook on the U.S. to negative, increasing the likelihood of a potential downgrade from its triple-A rating, as the path from large budget deficits and rising government debt remains unclear. S&P stated that a downgrade is still unlikely, somewhere in the “33% range.

The move comes amid continued hand-wringing over the balance sheet of the world’s largest economy and disagreement among politicians on how to address fiscal woes as economic growth remains sluggish. S&P said Monday it sees material risk that policymakers might not agree on how to address budgetary challenges by 2013, which would render the U.S. fiscal profile weaker than that of other triple-A-rated countries.

The S&P statement means that the agencies do not have unlimited patience with regards to US fiscal policy and the rising debt load. The IMF recently revised up its deficit forecasts as a percentage of GDP for 2011 and 2012 to -10.8% and -7.5% from -9.7% and -6.6% of previously. The 2011 US forecast is the highest in Developed markets, though the 2012 forecast has Japan overtaking the US as the worst in DM with -8.4%.

The VIX volatility index jumped as the US equity markets moved lower, testing the resistance level near 19, which coincides with the 50-day moving average. A break of this level, would target the 20.43, 200-day moving average. US markets moved lower, with the S&P 500 benchmark down more than 20 points touching 1295 intra-day.

Volatility Edges Higher on S&P Downgrade of US Debt

Overall contract volume was average, which shows that market particpants are not overly bearish on a heavy down day.

Volatility Edges Higher on S&P Downgrade of US Debt

Cisco Systems lead the tech heavy Nasdaq lower sliding to a new 52-week low and is down 36 cents to $16.67. In options action, an investor bought a 20000-contract block of June 15 puts at 21 cents each. Total volume in Cisco is heavy, with 55,000 calls and 60,000 changing hands on the day.

Implied volatility on shorter term weekly options continue to look attractive relative to longer term options with increased time decay.  Weekly’s are relative new instruments introduced by the CBOE within the past year.  To learn more about this dynamic new investment vehicle visit the options university webinar.

Some of the market was able to experience solid upward volume.  Celgene (CELG) displayed relative strength and increasing call volume. Shares are up 55 cents to $57.53 and May 60s are the most actives. 2,535 traded (62 percent Ask). Similar action in the May 57.5 and 65 calls. 14,000 call options and 5,815 puts now traded in the name. Briefing cites “positive ISI comments ahead of expected May trial data”.

Additionally, Akamai (AKAM) showed increasing call volume. Shares were up $1.42 to $39.51 and 25,000 calls traded, which is 4X the norm and 3X the day’s put volume. May 45 calls are the most actives. 4,500 traded (54 percent Ask). May 40 and 41 calls are busy as well.

In the Oil patch prices moved lower on a combination of Saudi comments mentioning that they plan to cut oil production given they perceive the demand is not available.  Prices were also hit by the credit watch downgrade placed by S&P.

Equity markets consolidated and continued to have a negative bias as financial institution were under pressure over an investigation by the Justice Department and the SEC over Libor manipulation. U.S. investigators are examining whether some of the world’s biggest banks colluded to manipulate a key interest rate before and during the financial crisis, affecting trillions of dollars in loans and derivatives. Regulators are examining a whether banks were understating their borrowing costs. At the time, banks were struggling with souring assets on balance sheets and questions about liquidity.
Additionally, investors were absorbing Obama’s vision for trimming $4 trillion from federal budget deficits over the next 12 years. The plan calls for ending the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.

In economic news, jobless claims increased by 27,000 to 412,000 in the week ended April 9, according to the Labor Department. The prior week’s figures were revised up to 385,000 from an originally reported 382,000. Economists had forecast claims would rise by 3,000 in the latest week. Also, The PPI, which measures how much manufacturers and wholesalers pay for goods and materials, rose 0.7% in March, according to Labor Department. The gains in March were driven by a 2.6% rise in energy costs, including a 5.7% jump in gasoline prices. Core prices, which strip out volatile food and energy components rose a more modest 0.3% last month.

Gold and Silver prices moved higher as sentiment toward the precious metal complex improved after the Labor department released stronger than expected core PPI data. The ETF GLD and SLV surged higher and receive positive flows from options transactions. Call volume in the SLV ETF topped 125 thousand contracts compared to the 55 thousand puts transacted. The total was more than 3 times normal trading volume.

The technology sector saw a fair bit of options activity. The top equity options trade for the today was in Microsoft (MSFT), which is trading down $25.30. One investor bought 108,000 July 27 calls at 44 cents and sold 71,000 October 26 calls at $1.24. A Microsoft shareholder might be initiating these spreads as part of buy-write strategy.

Volatility Sags as Equities Grind Higher

In the FX world, China announced that FX reserves topped $3 trillion for the first time, up $53 billion for March, and new bank loan growth came in stronger than expected as well. The recent positive Chinese data will likely lead to China continue to tighten rates at their gradual pace using a combination of reserve requirements, interest rates, loan quotas and FX appreciation.

Volume on the S&P 500 options contract increased as the equity markets turned from a double digit loss to a small gain toward the end of the trading session. Despite the increase in volume, the VIX continued to sag.

Volatility Sags as Equities Grind Higher

Option volatility moved higher today, specifically in the commodity space as Goldman Sachs announced an unwind of their long commodity basket position.  The investment bank called for a nearly $20 decline in Brent crude oil, saying speculators had pushed prices ahead of fundamentals.  Goldman Sachs chief energy analyst David Greely said the run-up in prices looked overdone.  Oil prices have fallen more than $7 dollar per barrel in the last two sessions and in-turn have increased implied volatility on crude oil and oil producers.  Implied volatility on crude oil jumped more than 10% from 30% to 33%.

The Goldman Sachs warning signals effected commodities across the board.  As unrest spread in North Africa and the Middle East, investors accumulated the equivalent of almost 100 million barrels of oil between mid-February and late March on top of their existing positions, adding approximately $10 to the risk premium.

Worries about the Japanese nuclear crisis also plagued the equity markets. The rating for the disaster has been raised to 7 from 5, putting it on par with the 1986 Chernobyl meltdown. Alcoa (AA) shares declined 6.1 percent and easily the biggest loser in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after the aluminum-maker reported revenues that fell short of expectations.

Silver Prices also experienced heavy selling and the IShares Silver Trust saw large put buying.  The silver ETF has nearly 280,000 contracts transacted as the ETF trades down to $39.08. Yesterday’s million dollar block of July 25 puts is up 60% to a 16 cent bid with no sign of closing trades, and today’s largest trade is another downside position: the May 34-36-38 put fly bought for 31cents 25,000x when the ETF was near 38.85.

Not all commodity oriented equities felt the pinch of the Goldman announcement.  Monsanto (MON) showed strong relative strength and bullish order flow today. Shares of the St. Louis-based chemicals company are up $2.08 to $69.25 and 30,000 calls traded in the name. Put volume is about 5,800 contracts. Trading is heavy in the May 70, 75 and 77.5 calls as well. Shares were weighed down by disappointing earnings last week and suffered a four-day 10.7 percent drop, before a two-day 4.6 percent advance so far this week.

Additionally, many transportation companies performed well and options activity reflected capital flow into airlines.  Call volume climbed past 100,000 contracts or nearly 10x the typical full day call volume in Delta Airlines (DAL). Shares moved higher by 5% in heavy volume. Both the Sep 11-12 call spread bought for 31cents and June Sep 11 call spread bought for 41cents approx 17,000 times are confirmed as news long call positions.  Volume in Delta Airlines exploded to the upside, the largest increase during the past 3 months.

Volatility Jumps on Crude Oil Slide

Benchmark Implied volatility (VIX) increased by nearly 4%, closing at 17.25.  Resistance is seen near 18.90 which is the 50-day moving average and then higher near 21 which is the 20-day moving average.

Volatility Jumps on Crude Oil Slide

How many of you out there think that the market is performing well?

How many think the market is performing poorly?

And how many feel the markets performance is neutral?

Actually none of these answers is correct. You see, the market does not perform, you do. You perform!

Sometimes you perform well, and other times you do not perform so well. The market doesn’t perform, it moves. It moves up, it moves down and it moves sideways.

It moves along like anything else that travels in a business cycle. If the market did perform, then you would only be able to make money in an up market.

As you know, it is possible to make money in a down market, and even in a stagnant market. Thus it stands to reason that the market simply moves and you react to it. So, let?s talk about your performance. You have two ways that you can perform, directly and indirectly.

Directly, you pick your own stocks. Indirectly, someone else picks your stocks for you, whether it is your broker or a fund manager.

In the latter case, the fact that you chose someone else to pick he actual stock does not mean that the responsibility of a loss is theirs. After all, it was you who chose them.

In the end, it is you and you alone who are responsible for your erformance. Consequently, it is your responsibility to become an educated investor.

Years ago, individual investors didn?t have to worry about who was managing their money. Now, things have changed as poor returns from money managers and investment firm scandals have shaken our confidence in these ?professionals.?

To get a better look at what lies ahead, you have to go back and look at what transpired to get you to where you are now. From there, maybe a clearer path into the future will become visible.

During the Great Bull Market of the 1990?s, many investors, like you, entered the market and reaped the returns of the largest bull market in history.

Everyone, it seemed, made incredibly high rates of return. The market?s incredible, unprecedented move appeared to make geniuses of us all – but in actuality, it masked some major flaws with many industry professionals. It also created a misconception in the general public that all market professionals were experts.

Suddenly, the bubble burst and those flaws were exposed.

Not only did we find out that most of those experts possessed more luck than skill, but we also discovered that some had been cheating us out of our hard earned savings.

Many investors were discouraged with these market developments, and to make matters worse, many had lost significant amounts of money. Not to mention, the prospect of regaining these losses seemed slim to uncertain, at best.

Furthermore, the very people we normally looked to for help in retrieving these losses either lacked the talent to recover them or had lost enough of our trust and confidence that we wouldn’t even entertain the thought of letting them try.

Thank You

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