Jul
20
One of the main objectives of The Option Pricing Model is to come up with the theoretical value of an option, which allows a buyer or seller to come up with an estimated value within the context of the input variables. However, Theoretical value is not the only important output of the option pricing model. There are other important outputs produced by the model and these important outputs are called the “Greeks”.
In his Options Mastery classes at Options University, Ron Ianieri describes the Greeks in the following manner: “The Greeks tell us ahead of time, before we enter into a trade, what the potential risks are and to the exact amount that they are going to affect both our price and our position. You can’t ask for a more powerful risk management tool than the Greeks”.
There are four main Greeks that option traders need to understand. The first one is Delta. It’s called the first derivative because Delta measures the correlation of the movement of an option in relationship to the underlying stock. If an option contract has a Delta of 50, which means if the underlying stock moves $1 the corresponding option will move 50 cents. A Delta of 100 means that the option exactly mimics the movement of the underlying stock. This usually happens with deep in-the-money-options. As a matter of fact, an option near 100 Delta is really a surrogate for the underlying stock and much less an option in the classical sense.
The second important Greek is Gamma. One of the idiosyncrasies of stock is that some options are more sensitive to movements in the underlying stock than the others. Traders would like to know before entering a trade how much an option is going to move in relation to the underlying. From a statistical stand point, Delta measures rate of change of the option. Gamma is like the Delta of the Delta in that Gamma measures the rate of the change of the Delta with movements in the stock.
The next Greek is called Theta-a measure of time decay. An option price is made up of two components: intrinsic and extrinsic value. Theta is a measure of the rate of decay of the extrinsic component of the option price.
Finally, the last major Greek is called Vega, or volatility sensitivity. Volatility is an essential input into the option pricing modes and has an extremely important part to play in the price of an option. As a matter of fact, an option depends on volatility for its very existence. Traders would like to know the exact amount by which an option’s price may change with any movement in volatility. It’s Vega that identifies and quantifies that exact amount.
An option trader must understand the important roles that the Greeks can play to help measure risk. As a matter of fact, many traders actually look more at trading the movements of Delta and Gamma than the price movements. If you want to be an option trader, you need to fully understand the Greeks and what they can do to help appraise a potential trade.
For much more on the Greeks, Options University (www.optionsuniversity.com) has several online courses that go into great depth on this important subject to option traders.
Jul
19
Write this down: Changes in volatility means changes in option price. It doesn’t matter if it’s a put or a call, front month or back; in the money or out -of- the-money, it doesn’t matter. If volatility goes up, the prices of options go up. Likewise, if volatility goes down, option prices go down.
Volatility not only prices but also affects all the Greeks. Out-of-the-money Delta increases but in-the-money Delta decreases. When volatility decreases, the opposite happens: in-the-money options gain Delta and get more in-the-money while out-of-the-money options lose Delta and value. (Academics call this Trumpification.)
As volatility increases, it increases the amount of extrinsic value (time value). When the amount of extrinsic value increases the amount of decay increases; the bigger the extrinsic, the bigger the decay; it’s as simple as that. The opposite also is. When volatility decreases, extrinsic value of the option also decreases. If there is less extrinsic value, then there is less time decay required to reach zero at expiration.
Volatility can have a profound effect on the shape of the normal distribution curve.
insert fig6-1
The more range of variance from the mean ($ 60) the more volatility. More volatility normally means higher option prices. Moreover, as Ron Ianieri of Options University points out, without volatility there can be no option. When an option is out-of-the money, it has extrinsic value and this changes as a function of the pricing model. But when the OTM option expires, there is no extrinsic value because time to expiration is zero; no extrinsic in an OTM means their is no option. On the other hand, when an option is deep in-the-money it acts just like the stock and has no extrinsic value. The option now is just like holding the stock. For options deeply out-of-the money, they have no real extrinsic value. So, without extrinsic value and its corresponding volatility, there is-in effect-no option. When deep ITM the option is the same as the stock; way OTM has little to no extrinsic value so that also is not an option.
In summary, wider price movements means more volatility. More volatility means higher option price because big moves have a supposed higher capability to move into-the-money. By the same token, high volatility can mean more probability of moving out-of-the-money.
Jul
19
Physical versus Cash Delivery
If you exercise an equity option, you will either buy or sell the actual (physical) shares of the underlying stock. This is called physical delivery or physical settlement.
On the other hand, most index options, such as SPX (S&P 500), are cash settlement rather than physical delivery. In other words, if the long position exercises an index option, he receives the cash value of the option rather than taking actual delivery of all the stocks in that index. Just realize that not all options settle in physical delivery. As you continue to learn more about options you will hear the terms “physical settlement” and “cash settlement,” and it’s important you understand what these terms mean.
Exercise versus Assign
We said earlier that it is the long positions who get to exercise their options. What do short positions get to do? Nothing. Remember, short positions have no rights. The short position may get a phone call from his broker stating that he has just purchased or sold shares of stock due to a call option he sold. If you are required to buy or sell shares of stock due to a short option, it is called an assignment.
If you get assigned on an option, your broker will notify you the next business day to inform you of the assignment. He may say something like, “I’m calling to inform you that you’ve been assigned on your short call options and have sold 100 shares for the strike price of $50.”
The words exercise and assign should only be associated with long and short positions respectively. However, in the real world, if you are assigned on a short option, brokers may say things like “you got exercised” on an option even though it is technically incorrect. Long positions exercise. Short positions get assigned. In truth, it doesn’t really matter in practice if an incorrect phrase is used such as “you got exercised” rather than “you got assigned” as long as you understand the message. However, if these terms are used, you do need to understand the difference. Most books and literature on options carefully choose between the words “exercise” and “assign” and you need to understand the actions they are referring to.
Let’s work through some examples to be sure you understand. If you are long a call option, you have the right to exercise it and buy shares of stock. If you are short the call, you might get assigned and be required to sell shares. If you are long a put option, you have the right to exercise it and sell shares. If you are short the put option, you could get assigned and be required to buy shares. To continue further, if a long call holder uses his call to buy shares of stock he would say, “I exercised my call.” The short call holder would say, “I got assigned on my call.”
It is important to understand that once you submit exercise instructions to your broker and the shares and cash have exchanged hands it is an irrevocable transaction. Make sure you want to exercise before submitting instructions. Also, many firms have cutoff times after which exercise instructions cannot be changed (even though the shares or cash may not have yet been exchanged). Check with your broker as to what these cutoff times are before you submit exercise instructions.
Option Basics
You now have enough information to understand some hypothetical call and put options. These two assets – calls and puts – are the building blocks for every option strategy you will ever encounter. This is why it is crucial that you understand the rights and obligations that they convey. Most confusion with option strategies stem from not understanding (or simply forgetting) who has the right and who has the obligation.
Because options are binding contracts, they are traded in units called contracts. Stocks are traded in shares; options are traded in contracts. An option contract, just like a pizza coupon, will always be designated by the underlying stock it controls along with the expiration month and strike price. For example, let’s assume we are looking at a Microsoft June $30 call.
We’ll soon show you where you can look up actual option quotes and symbols for options, but for now let’s make sure you understand what this option represents.
Using your understanding of pizza coupons, what do you suppose the buyer of one contract is allowed to do? The buyer of this call has the right (not the obligation) to purchase 100 shares of the underlying stock – Microsoft – for $30 per share at any time through the third Friday in June. (Remember that the expiration date for stock options is always the third Friday of the expiration month.) The buyer of this coupon is “locked in” to the $30 price no matter how high Microsoft shares may be trading. Obviously, the higher Microsoft trades, the more valuable the call option becomes.
To understand this concept a little better, assume that you have found a piece of property valued at $300,000 and wish to buy it. But you’d first like spend a few days researching the area before buying it. If you do, you’ll run the risk of losing it to another investor. What can you do? You can go to the broker and put down some money to hold the property for you. For instance, you may pay $500 for several days worth of time. If you decide against the property, you lose the $500. These arrangements are done all the time in real estate and are called “options” on real estate. Assume that you pay the $500 for five days worth of time and are now locked into a binding agreement to buy the property for $300,000 over the next five days. Now suppose that some news is spreading that the area is about to be commercially zoned and some big businesses are interested in it. Property in the area goes up dramatically overnight. But even if you decide to not buy the property, don’t you think that somebody else would love to be in possession of the contract that you have giving them the right to pay $300,000? Of course they would. And these people will start offering you large amounts of money to persuade you to sign over the contract to them. You could just sell it to them and they could sell it to others. This is exactly what most traders do with the equity options market.
Now let’s go back to our option example. How much will it cost you to use (exercise) your call option? Because you are buying 100 shares of stock, the strike price must be multiplied by 100 as well. If you were to exercise this Microsoft $30 call option, you would pay the $30 strike * 100 shares = $3,000 cash. This is called the total contract value or the exercise value. In exchange for that payment, you’d receive 100 shares of Microsoft. It works just like a pizza coupon. You pay a fixed amount of cash and receive some type of underlying asset. Most brokers charge a standard stock commission to exercise your options. If you exercised this call, your broker would probably charge you his regular commission for buying 100 shares of stock. After all, the long call option is simply a means for buying regular shares of stock.
To restate a previous point, it is important to understand that if you buy call or put options, you are not required to ever buy or sell shares of stock. Further, you do not ever need the shares of stock in your account at any time. Most option contracts are opened and closed in the open market without a single share of stock changing hands. Even though you’re allowed to purchase or sell stock with your options, most traders never do. Instead, they just buy and sell the contracts in the open market amongst other traders.
Now let’s assume we are looking at a Microsoft June $30 put option. Think about your auto insurance policy and try to figure out what this option allows you to do. If you buy this put option, you have the right to sell 100 shares of Microsoft for $30 per share at any time through the third Friday in June. Because you are locking in a selling price, put options become more valuable as the stock price falls. If you exercise this put option, you are selling 100 shares of Microsoft, which means you will have 100 shares of Microsoft taken from your account and delivered to someone else. In exchange, you will receive the $30 strike * 100 shares = $3,000 cash. If you exercise this put, your broker will probably charge the regular stock commission for selling 100 shares of stock since the put option is simply a means for selling regular shares of stock.
What if you only wish to buy or sell fewer than 100 shares of stock? You can do that but in a roundabout way. Using the call example above, let’s say you only wanted to buy 60 shares of Microsoft for $30. You would still exercise the call option for 100 shares and then immediately submit an order to sell 40 shares (which would carry a separate commission). Each contract is good for 100 shares and you must buy and sell in that amount. But there’s nothing stopping you from immediately entering another order to customize those amounts to suit your needs. Likewise, if you exercised a put option but only wanted to sell 60 shares of stock, you would have to exercise the put and sell 100 shares and then immediately place an order to buy 40 shares.
To be continued…
Jul
18
The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC)
Okay, this may sound good in theory but how do you know that the short positions will actually follow through with their obligations if you decide to use your call or put option?
The answer is that there is a clearing firm called the Options Clearing Corporation, or OCC. The OCC is a highly capitalized and regulated agency that acts as a middleman to all transactions. When you buy an option, you are really buying it from the OCC. And when you sell an option, you are really selling it to the OCC. The OCC acts as the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer. It is the OCC that guarantees the performance of all contracts. By performance we obviously do not mean profits but rather that if you decide to use your option, you are assured the transaction will go through. In fact, ever since the inception of the options market and the OCC in 1973, not a single case of unfair or partial performance has ever occurred. If you’d like to read more about the OCC, you can find its website at www.OptionsClearing.com.
Before reading further, make sure you understand the following key concepts:
Key Concepts
1) Long call options give the buyer the right to BUY stock at a fixed price over a given time period
2) Short call options create the obligation to SELL stock at a fixed price over a given time period.
3) Long put options give the buyer the right to SELL stock at a fixed price over a given time period.
4) Short put options create the obligation to BUY stock at a fixed price over a given time period.
5) Option sellers (calls or puts) keep the cash regardless of what happens in the future.
6) The OCC acts as a middleman to all transactions.
More Option Terminology
We’re almost ready to talk about real call and put options but we first must go over some other market terminology that you’ll need to understand. We just covered the terms “long” and “short,” which are critical for understanding who has the right and who has the obligation with any particular strategy. But we have a lot more ground to cover before learning about strategies. Next, we must venture into the remaining terms we will be using throughout the book.
Underlying Asset
In the pizza coupon example, we would say the underlying asset is a pizza. Notice that the coupon limited us to how many pizzas we can purchase; we cannot purchase all we want. In addition, the coupon is not good for any brand of pizza but only the one advertised on the coupon. Call and put options work in similar ways. The underlying asset for a call or put option is generally 100 shares of stock. There are exceptions (which we’ll explore later in Chapter Four) to this rule such as certain stock splits or mergers. But when options are first listed, they always represent 100 shares of the underlying stock.
The “brand” of shares we can buy is determined by the call or put option. For example, if we have a Microsoft call option, we have the right to buy 100 shares of Microsoft. In this case, Microsoft would be the underlying stock. The price of an option is tied to or derived by the underlying stock. Because of this, options are one of many types of derivative instruments. A derivative instrument is one whose value is derived by the value of another asset.
Strike Price (Exercise Price)
In our example, the pizza coupon states a specific purchase price of $10.00. No matter what the price of pizzas may be when you get to the store, you are locked in to the price of $10.00. If this were an option, we’d call this “lock in” price the strike price, which is really a slang term that comes from the fact that we have “struck” a deal at that price.
Another name for the strike price is the exercise price. The reason for this is that if you choose to use your option, you must submit exercise instructions to your broker, which is handled with a simple phone call. With a pizza coupon you just “hand in” the coupon, but in the world of options you must “exercise” the option through your broker.
If you exercise a call option, you must pay the strike price (since you’re buying stock) and that’s why the strike price is also called the exercise price. It’s the price you will pay for exercising the option to purchase shares of stock. If you are short a call option, you’ll receive the strike price (because you’re selling stock). The exercise price is the price that will be paid by the long position and received by the short position.
The opposite is true for put options. If you exercise a put, you’ll receive the strike price since you are selling shares of stock. The short put will pay the strike price since he is the required to buy the stock. The exercise price is the price that will be received by the long put and paid by the short put.
We’ll talk more about exercising options later but, for now, just understand that the strike price and exercise price are two terms meaning the same thing. They both represent the fixed purchase or selling price.
Expiration Date
Notice that the pizza coupon also has an expiration date. You can use this coupon at any time up to and including the expiration date. Equity options (options on stock) always expire on the third Friday of the expiration month. Technically speaking, equity options expire on Saturday following the third Friday but that is really for clearing purposes. That extra day (Saturday) gives the OCC (Options Clearing Corporation) time to match buyers and sellers while the contract is still legally “alive.” From a practical standpoint though, the last day to close or to exercise your option is the third Friday of the expiration month. After that, it’s no longer valid. So just because you may read that options expire on Saturday, don’t think you can get up Saturday morning and call your broker with exercise instructions – it’s too late. The third Friday of the expiration month is your last day (not the only day) to close or exercise the option. (If Friday is a holiday, the last trading day will usually be the preceding Thursday.)
Although a pizza storeowner may allow you to turn in an expired coupon, there’s no such thing with the options market. The second that option expires, it’s gone for good. There are some index options, such as options covering the S&P 500 Index that expire on the third Thursday of the expiration month. However, we will only be discussing equity options in this book, so whenever we talk about the expiration date, we will always be referring to the third Friday of the expiration month unless otherwise stated.
American Versus European Styles
As stated before, most option contracts are simply bought and sold in the open market without a single share of stock ever changing hands. However, if you wish to physically trade shares of stock, you must exercise your option. When can you exercise your option? The answer to that depends on the style of option. There are two styles of options: American and European. The style of option has nothing to do with its origin as implied by the names “American” and “European.” Instead, the style simply tells us when the option may be exercised. American-style options can be exercised at any time through the third Friday of the expiration month. European-style options, on the other hand, can only be exercised on thethird Fridayof the expiration month. You generally do not get to select which style of option you want. All equity options (that is, options on stock) are American style and can be exercised at any time. Most index options are European style. There are a few indices that offer both such as the OEX (S&P 100 Index), which is American style and the XEO, which is the European version of the same index.
It may sound like the American-style option has a big advantage over a European style. After all, for example, if a stock is really flying high it would be nice to exercise a call option and buy the shares at a cheaper price and immediately sell the shares to capture a profit. We’re going to find out in Chapter Four that exercising a call option early for this reason is a big mistake. You will find out that most of the time you are better off just selling the call option in the open market rather than exercising it.
This book is written from the perspective of equity options, so we will assume that all options discussed are American style unless otherwise stated. We only differentiate the terms “American” and “European” so you will know what it they mean if you hear them later while continuing to learn about options. The bottom line is that all equity options are American style, which means the long position can exercise them at any time during the life of the option even though it is rarely optimal to do so.
The last day to buy, sell, or exercise your options is the third Friday of the expiration month.
To be continued….
Jul
18
Ron Ianieri, one of the founders of Options University and ex-market maker in Dell Computer, related a story about how to handle negative skew. But first, what is negative skew?
You probably remember the standard bell curve for normal distribution. It looks like chart below.
insert fig1-1
Notice the symmetry on both sides of the mean. Under the regime of normal distribution, a trader could expect about one price move into the third standard deviation about once each year. For example, if the yearly price range for XYZ stock is $80-$160; about once each year the price might be down to $80 or up to $160 (white portion of the tails). But in reality, many volatile stocks may move more than 3 standard deviations more than the forecast 1-2% of the time. If this is done unevenly, the normal distribution will become skewed. In Ron’s case of Dell, much larger and more frequent price moves were to the downside. The distribution had a negative skew and looked like middle to the left.
insert fig5-2
As Dell had as many as eight three standard deviation excursions to the downside on the same year, Ron purchased many more out-of-the-money puts than out-of-the-money calls. He calls this compensation “fattening up the tail”, which in this case meant more puts (left tail) than calls in the right side of the curve. Of course the reverse is also true for a stock with a positive skew. In that case, the trader would fatten up the right side of the curve by purchasing more out-of-the-money calls. Additionally, on the side of the skewness, the price of puts or calls will be higher than on the non-skewed side. Another way to look at it is that if you expect more of a possibility for large moves to the downside, you would want your OTM puts to be more expensive than comparative OTM calls.
This is different than positive or negative put-call skew because this term refers to corresponding options (put and call volatility at the same strike price). This pertains to one particular option whereas positive or negative skew refers to the distribution itself. If there is more of a probability of large downside excursions than upside, it is negative skew; more probability of moves to the upside would be positive skew. When playing the probabilities, a trader might consider a heavier weighting of OTM puts for negative skew and the reverse for OTM calls for positive skew.
Jul
17
Options University’s founder Ron Ianieri states in one of his Options Mastery Course: “As traders, we have to be able to determine for ourselves what the relative highs and lows for different stocks are going to be because obviously we don’t want to be buying an option that’s very high in terms of its volatility relative to what the stock normally trades at; nor do we want to be selling options when the range is very low. So we have to get an idea for ourselves of what the volatility ranges and measurements are”.
Measures of volatility are relative. For example a high volatility might be 30 while others might be high with a 90. High or low volatility is relative to the particular underlying stock. To derive what is high or low, we need to know what the mean or average for the particular underlying stock volatility is. To get the best idea of what monthly volatility is, we will look at the at-the-money strike price because it has the most attention and it’s the most accurately priced, but the second thing is it also has is the highest sensitivity to movements in volatility.
When we talk about measurements we talk about how we’re going to gauge whether present implied volatility is high or low. We do that by establishing a base volatility. The pros use a Volatility Cone-or Volcone Analyzer- to help measure historical volatility. Once a base volatility is determined, a comparative high or low volatility measure can be produced by establishing standard deviations based on the data. For example, if a current variance of implied volatility is over one standard deviation to the right that means that the current implied volatility is outside of the normal 68% expected range and is statistically “significant” to the upside.
Volatility Skew
Different options of different stocks trade at different volatilities from month to month and strike to strike. Even two options that are corresponding options (same strike and same month) have a call and its put that trade at two different volatilities. When this happens, it’s called “skew”, and in the real world of option trading there are many volatility skews.
The “vertical skew” (also called the volatility “smile”) demonstrates that as the strikes in the same month move away from the at-the-money strike (both into and out-of-the-money), volatility increases. Volatility is normally the lowest at-the-money. If you chart the volatilities, it resembles a smile with the low point at-the-money. Moreover, front months display a bigger smile, while the outer months seem to produce lesser smiles.
The “horizontal skew” (also called “tilt”) looks at what is happening to the same strike over different months. Same strike prices usually trade higher in the front month’s and decrease the further out you go. If the reverse happens, that is called a tilt inversion. This knowledge can become valuable when trading time spreads.
The last skew we’ll talk about today is the “put-call skew”. Theoretically, same month, same strike calls and puts should trade at the same price. However, in the real world, often the call price is trading higher than the corresponding put (positive skew). Likewise, put prices may be trading higher than the corresponding call (negative skew). Both of these situations can be important considerations when using different stock option strategies.
Jul
17
This is not meant to be a course in shorting stocks but rather a way to understand what the term "short" really means when applied to the stock or options market. Shorting means you receive cash from selling an asset you don’t own and then incur some type of obligation. In the case of shorting stocks, your obligation is that you must buy back the shares at some time.
If you short an option, you have sold something you don’t own. You get cash up front and then incur some type of obligation depending on whether you sold a call or put. If you short a call, you get cash up front and have the obligation to sell shares of stock. If you short a put, you get cash up front and have the obligation to buy shares of stock. The cash is credited to your account immediately and is yours to keep regardless of what happens to the option. That is your compensation for accepting an obligation, much like the premiums you pay to an insurance company.
When you sell (short) an option you will receive cash, which is yours to keep regardless of what happens in the future.
The following table may help you to visualize the rights-versus-obligations relationships:
| |
LONG
|
SHORT
|
|
Call
|
Right to buy stock
|
Obligation to sell stock
|
|
Put
|
Right to sell stock
|
Obligation to buy stock
|
Notice that the long and short positions are taking opposite sides of the transaction. For instance, the long call (call buyer) must be matched with a short call (call seller). The long call has a right while the short call has an obligation. Rights and obligations are opposites. In addition, the long call gets to buy while the short call is required to sell. Buying and selling are also opposites.
For put options, the long put (put buyer) must be matched with a short put (put seller). As with call options, it is the long position that has the right while the short position has the obligation (opposites). The long put, however, has the right to sell while the short put is required to buy (opposites).
This arrangement is required to make the options market work. Both parties (the buyer and seller) cannot have rights. They can neither both buy nor both sell. One side has the right to buy (or the right to sell), while the opposite side has the obligation to complete the transaction.
This arrangement is often a source of confusion for new traders. They wonder how the option market can work if everybody has a right to buy or sell. The answer is that it is only the long position that has the rights. The short position has an obligation. It is important to understand this relationship when going through this book, especially when you get to strategies.
Long options have rights. Short options have obligations.
Getting Out of a Contract
We just learned that you can get into an option contract by either buying or selling a call or put. But once you’re in the contract, is there a way to get out of it at a later time? The answer is yes. All you have to do is enter a closing transaction (also called a reversing trade). In other words, you can always "escape" from your rights or obligations by simply doing the reverse set of actions that got you into the contract in the first place.
For example, if you are short an option and decide at a later time you don’t want the corresponding obligation, you can get out of it by simply buying the options back. This is much like you do with shares of stock if you are short. However, just because you can get out of the contract doesn’t mean that you can avoid any losses that may have accrued. The price you pay to get out of the contract may be higher and, in some cases, much higher than the price you originally received from selling it – just as when shorting shares of stock. But the point is that you can get out of a short option contract by simply buying it back.
If the idea of buying back a contract sounds confusing, think of the following analogy. You probably have a cell phone are locked into some type of agreement such as a one-year contract. Cell companies do this to prevent people from continually shopping around and jumping to the hot promotion of the month. However, your cell provider will also have some type of "buy back" clause in the contract. That is, if you wish to get out of the agreement, you must pay a fixed amount of money, perhaps $200, and you can escape your remaining obligations. If you pay this fee, the company cannot take you to court later and say that you didn’t fulfill your obligations. The reason is that you bought the contract back – it no longer exists between you and the company. That’s the fee they specified to end all obligations.
This is mathematically the same thing that happens when you buy back a contract in the options market. Although it is not a fee to end the contract, what you’re really doing is going long and short the same contract, thereby eliminating all profits or losses beyond that point. If you’re long the contract and you’re short the same contract, then you’ve effectively ended all obligations.
Likewise, you can get out of long call option by simply doing the reverse; that is, selling the same contract that you own. Because of this possibility, most option traders simply trade the contracts back and forth in the open market rather than using them to buy or sell shares of stock. As we will later see, trading option contracts is a big advantage because they cost a fraction of the stock price.
You can always get out of an option contract at any time by simply entering a reversing trade.
Let’s make sure you understand the concepts of long and short calls and puts by using our pizza coupon and car insurance analogies. If you are in possession of a pizza coupon, you are "long" the coupon and have the right, not the obligation, to buy one pizza for a fixed price over a given time period. In the real world, you do not buy pizza coupons; they are handed out for free. But that doesn’t put an end to our analogy because the basic idea is still there. Since you are holding the coupon, that means you posess the right to use it, and that’s the role of the long position. The pizza storeowner would be "short" the coupon and has an obligation to sell you the pizza if you choose to use your coupon. You have the right; he has the obligation.
If you buy an auto insurance policy you are "long" the policy and have the right to "put" your car back to the insurance company. The insurance company is "short" the policy; it receives money in exchange for the potential obligation of having to buy your car from you. Whether you make a claim or not, the insurance company keeps your premium just as you will when selling options. That’s its compensation for accepting the risk.
In the real world of car insurance, you cannot just force the insurance company to buy the car back for any reason. There are certain conditions that must be met; for example, the car must be damaged or stolen. You can’t just obligate the insurance company because you don’t like it anymore or because it has depreciated. However, in the real world of put options, you can sell your stock at a fixed price for any reason while your put option is still in effect. There are no restrictions. Of course, you wouldn’t want to do that if the fixed price you’d receive is less than the current market price. The main point is that if you are long a put option, you call the shots. You have the rights. You have the "option" to decide. You have the right to sell your stock for that fixed price at any time during the time your "policy" is in effect.
To be continued…….
Short selling works because traders are obligated to return a fixed number of shares and not a fixed dollar amount. In our example, you shorted 100 shares with a value of $7,000. Your obligation is to return 100 shares of IBM and not $7,000 worth of IBM. If you can purchase the shares for less money than you received, you will make a profit.
Jul
16
The key to having a trade is that you, being the buyer, and me being the seller, have different volatility assumptions. What I think volatility is going to be versus what you think volatility is going to be makes the difference. Everything else we’re in total agreement with because those outputs are “hard numbers” processed by the Options Pricing Model. Current prices, selected strike price, days to expiration, interest rate and dividends are what they are. Just looking at the pricing model output based on these factors is the same for both buyer and seller. But what makes a trade is really the factor of perceived volatility. So, when we talk about volatility we are really talking about the essence of an option trade.
What is Volatility?
Basically, volatility is a measure of dispersion around the mean. A simple example would be comparing two stocks. Both have a current price of $40, however, the first stock has a price range of $15-$60 over a period of time and the second stock has a price range of $32-$52 over the same time period. The first stock is more volatile than the second stock; the range of past prices has a broader price range. Based upon historical movement, the price movement demonstrates the most probable price range. The potential outcome normally lies between the end points of the range for a certain time period.
When talking about volatility in the stock options market, there are basically four different types of volatility. The first is Historical Volatility. As Volatility has a direct link with price (higher volatility usually means higher prices) we try to predict future volatility (price) based a large part on the past history of a stock’s volatility. This leads us to extrapolate (guesstimate) the Future volatility for a specific time period in the future. This is where the art comes in. You may build your forecast on a set of assumptions different from mine. Once we input our forecast volatility into the pricing formula, the end result may be different. Differences make for perceived opportunities; you might think the option you are selling is correctly priced while the buyer feels it is under priced. However, just how much a difference in computed price may affect the actual trade is based on the individual cost-benefit perception. For example, there are times when I might feel that an option is over priced but I will buy it anyway because I think the profit potential will justify the purchase. However, for the most part, professional traders will stay away from overpriced options.
The third type of volatility is called implied volatility. We can actually figure out what your forecast volatility is by working your bid price. If you bid $3.00 and I put this into the model and solve for volatility, I can come up with your measure of volatility. This is the implied volatility as observed by your bid price. If the implied volatility for your bid is lower than mine, I am implying that I think there will be more future volatility and thus potential higher prices. Keep in mind that every time any of the variables change, so does the outcome of the pricing model.
The final volatility is future volatility. This is our “best guess” as to what we think the future volatility will be. The difference is that future volatility is not a product of the option pricing model.
Jul
16
We know that buyers of options have rights to either buy or sell. What about sellers? Option sellers have obligations. If you sell an option, it is also called “writing” the option, which is much like insurance companies “write” policies. Buyers have rights; sellers have obligations. Sellers have an obligation to fulfill the contract if the buyer decides to use their option. It may sound like option buyers get the better end of the deal since they are the ones who decide whether or not to use the contract. It’s true that option buyers have a valuable right to choose whether to buy or sell, but they must pay for that right. So while sellers incur obligations, they do get paid for their responsibility since nobody will accept an obligation for nothing.
There are some traders who will tell you to always be the buyer of options while others will tell you that you’re better off being the seller. Hopefully, you already see that neither statement can always be true, because there are pros and cons to either side. Buyers get the benefit of “calling the shots,” but the drawback is they must pay for that benefit. Sellers get the benefit of collecting cash but they have a drawback in that there are potential obligations to meet. What are the sellers’ obligations? That’s easy to figure out once you understand the rights of the buyers. The seller’s obligation is exactly the opposite of the buyer’s rights. For example, if a call buyer has the right to buy stock, the call seller must have the obligation to sell stock. If a put buyer has the right to sell stock, the put seller has the obligation to buy stock.
These obligations are really potential obligations since the seller does not know whether or not the buyer will use his option. For example, if you sell a call option you may have to sell shares of stock, which is different from saying that you will definitely sell shares of stock. A call seller will definitely have to sell shares of stock if the call buyer decides to use his call option and buy shares of stock. If you sell a put option, you may have to buy shares of stock. A put seller definitely must buy shares of stock if the put buyer decides to use his put option and sell shares of stock.
It’s important to understand that options only convey rights to buy or sell shares of stock. For example, if you own a call option, you do not get any of the benefits that come with stock ownership such as dividends or voting privileges (although you could acquire shares of stock by using your call option and thereby get dividends or voting privileges). But by themselves, options convey nothing other than an agreement between two people to buy and sell shares of stock.
Now that you have a basic understanding of call and put options, let’s add some market terminology to our groundwork.
The Long and Short of It
The financial markets are filled with colorful terminology. And one of the biggest obstacles that new option investors face is interpreting the jargon. Two common terms used by brokers and traders are “long” and “short,” and it’s important to understand these terms as applied to options. If you buy any financial asset, you are “long” the position. For example, if you buy 100 shares of IBM, using market terminology, you are long 100 shares of IBM. The term “long” just means you own it. Likewise, if you buy a call option, you are “long” the call option.
If “long” means you bought it then “short” means you sold it, right? Not quite. Some people will tell you that “short” just means you sold an asset, but that is an incomplete definition. For example, if you are long 100 shares of IBM and then sell 100 shares you are not short shares of IBM even though you sold 100 shares. That’s because you bought the shares first and then sold them, which means you have no shares left.
However, let’s say you bought 100 shares of IBM and then, by accident, entered an order online to sell 150 shares of IBM. The computer will execute the order since it has no way of knowing how many shares you actually own. (Maybe you have shares in a safe deposit box or with another broker.) But if you really owned only 100 shares then you would be “short” 50 shares of IBM. In other words, you sold 50 shares you don’t own. And that’s exactly what it means to be short shares of stock. It means you sold shares you do not own. However, when we short shares in the financial market, it’s not meant to be by mistake – it is done intentionally. How can you intentionally sell shares you don’t own? You must borrow them. In order to further understand what it means to be “short” and how that applies to options, let’s take a quick detour to understand the basics of short selling.
Traders use short sales as a way to profit from falling stock prices. Assume IBM is trading for $70 and you think its price is going to fall. If you are correct, you could profit from this outlook by entering an order to “short” or “sell short” shares of IBM. Let’s assume you decide to short 100 shares. Your broker will find 100 shares from another client and let you borrow these shares. Although this sounds like a lengthy, complicated transaction it takes only seconds to execute.
In terms of the mechanics, shorting shares is similar to making a purchase on your credit card. Your bank finds loanable funds from somebody else’s account to let you borrow and you then have an obligation to return those funds at some time. How complicated is it to short shares of stock? About as complicated as it is to swipe a credit card at a cash register.
Let’s assume you short 100 shares of IBM at $70. Once the order is executed, you have $7,000 cash sitting in your account (sold 100 shares at $70 per share) and your account shows that you are short 100 shares of IBM – you sold shares that you do not own. Do you get to just take the $7,000 cash, close the account and walk away? No, once you short the shares of stock, you incur an obligation to replace those 100 shares at some time in the future. In other words, you must buy 100 shares at some time and return them to the broker. Obviously, your goal is to purchase those 100 shares at a cheaper price.
Let’s assume that the price of IBM later drops by $5 to $65 and you decide to buy back the shares. You could enter an order to buy 100 shares and spend $6,500 of the $7,000 cash you initially received from selling shares. Once you buy the 100 shares, your obligation to return the IBM shares is then satisfied and you are left with an extra $500 in your account. In other words, you profited from a falling stock price. This profit can also be found by multiplying the number of short shares by the drop in price, or 100 shares * $5 fall in price = $500 profit. If you have shorted 300 shares of IBM, you would have ended up with a 300 shares * $5 fall in price = $1,500 profit. Of course, if the price of IBM had risen at the time you purchased them back, then you’d be left with a loss since you must spend more than you received to return the shares. If short selling still sounds confusing, just realize that the short seller generates profits in the same way as a stock buyer but by entering transactions in the opposite order. For instance, when you buy stock, you want to buy low and sell high. When you short stock, you want to sell high and buy low. If you short a stock and then buy it back at a higher price, you’re left with a loss because you really bought high and sold low.
To be continued…..
Jul
15
Believe it or not, the options market was designed to allow investors to either accept or transfer risk. The options market is technically a market for dealing in risk. You’re probably wondering who would ever want to willingly accept risk. Odd as that may sound, we do it all the time.
When you buy an auto insurance policy, you are paying a fee to the insurance company. In exchange for that fee, they are accepting the risks associated with you having an accident. The insurance company is accepting risk in exchange for cash. You are paying cash in exchange for transferring the unwanted risk. The agreement between you and the insurance company creates an intangible market – the market for risk. So to answer the question of who would ever willingly accept risk, you must remember that someone is getting paid to accept that risk. If the fee is high enough, you can be sure that someone will step in and accept the risk.
This highlights why the options market is perceived to be so risky. After all, it is a market whose only product for sale is risk. As stated before, the riskiness of options depends on how you’re using them, but now we can state it a little more clearly: It depends on whether you are transferring or accepting risk. None of us would consider the car insurance market to be risky since we use it to transfer risk away from us. However, the insurance companies see it quite differently. It depends on which side of the agreement you’re on.
The options market works within a simple principle: while many investors wish to reduce risk, there are some people who actively look for risk. The latter are called speculators. Speculators are willing to gamble for big profits; they aren’t afraid to take a long shot if there is potential for big money. People who patronize casinos and play state lotteries are acting as speculators. If there are speculators out there who are willing to accept risk in the stock market, wouldn’t it make sense to be able to transfer it to them? Of course, in order to make it worth their while, we will have to pay them some money to accept that risk. So if there is a risk you wish to avoid, you can do so by purchasing an option. Conversely, if there is a risk you’re willing to assume, you can get paid through the options market to accept the risk for someone else. So while one investor may be using options to avoid risk, it is possible that the person on the other side of the trade is a speculator willing to accept that risk. Investors who do not understand this interplay between investors and speculators hear both sides of the story and that’s where the confusion comes in.
Unfortunately, this confusion often makes many investors avoid options altogether. This is a big mistake in today’s marketplace. As our economies expand, our financial needs increase; that’s why you see so many new financial products coming to market. Each product is different – sometimes only in small ways – but each provides the solution to a specific problem. Options allow you to selectively pick and choose the risks you want to take or avoid. And that is something that cannot be done with any other financial asset. Because you can select the individual risks to take, options can be used in very conservative as well as very speculative ways. It’s all up to you. If you’d like to make the stock market a less risky place, options are your answer. If you’d like to increase the risk and speculate more efficiently for bigger profits, options are your answer too.
Let’s get started and find out how you can improve your investments from this mysterious market.
Jul
15
Options start with the Option Pricing Model. The basic parameters of what goes into the model have not changed, just the methods of computation and error corrections. So, to help present a non-mathematical description of the model, let’s examine what key independent variables are imputed into the Option Model.
First, we put in the most recent closing price. Choosing the closing price is more a matter of consistency. If you use the high for the day and I use the close, we will be comparing apples to oranges. So, to create uniformity, the most recent closing price goes into the option pricing model currently in use. Most trading platforms out there use the same pricing model so that buyers and sellers are looking at the same thing. Price also lets the model know if the price is in-the-money or out-of-the-money.
After putting in the price, we need to choose and input the strike price. Next, we need to let the model know how many days are left until expiration. Another input, which is not quite as important as the others, but must be considered, is the current interest rate. As Options University co-founder Ron Ianieri describes: “there will be times you’re going to be long stocked and there will be times that you’ll be short stock. When you’re long stock; you’re taking cash that is receiving interest rate out of your account and replacing it with stock that’s not receiving any interest rate. So whenever you buy stock or make any type of purchase you are losing interest rate”. Also if you are shorting a stock, you’ll be selling something you borrowed and you will be replacing later and the cash that goes into your account will probably be earning interest.
Dividends are another factor that goes into the model. Theoretically, a stock price goes down by the amount of dividends that is paid out. This is because dividends come out of assets and if assets are reduced, that hits the stock price. There are other corrective factors such as kurtosis and skewness that are input but that is included in the structure of particular pricing model.
But there is one very important input that we haven’t considered and it is the most important factor that makes an option an option. If everyone is considering the exact same inputs, buyer and seller are looking at the same output (Theoretical Value) but both see different conclusions. Why does one want to sell at a certain price and the other to buy at a certain price? The mystery factor is Volatility. Volatility is such an important topic, that it will be covered in another article all of its own.
Jul
14
To develop an understanding of the power and versatility of stock options, it’s best to start with the Option Pricing Model. Stock options are mathematical creatures that derive from a Nobel Prize winning formula called the Black-Scholes model. However, the venerable model needed some evolutionary changes to refine the process and adapt to the American system of permitting early assignment. The Black-Scholes was developed for the European trading system, which only allowed option assignment after the expiration date.
But as a matter of fact, even the most current improvements to the original model are still unable to account for a basic flaw. It’s not perfection-yet- but the pricing models provide some very important information.
Basically, the pricing models attempt to come up with a theoretical value of what an option should cost in relation to the underlying stock. The results of the pricing model present probabilities of value depending on certain defined parameters at a specific time. Needless to say, the parameters are always changing as is the theoretical value. Keep in mind that the pricing model is a function that is based on probability and as such has an inherent flaw.
That flaw has to do with the famous “random walk” theory that states that price movements are random and as such can fall within the concept of the Normal Distribution Curve-commonly known as the Bell Curve of academic fame. The normal distribution curve demonstrates a certain predictable pattern of probabilities given randomness of each individual data point.
The Normal Distribution Curve
Insert fig1-1
To help give an under-standing of how the normal distribution curve works in relation to stock prices; consider today’s price of XYZ to be represented by the line bisecting the red column. Based on the history of random price movements of XYZ, the next price movement has a 68.4% probability of moving within the red column. This is called one standard deviation. Movement to the right is an increase in price. For the price to move into the green area to the right of today’s price would have a 13.5% chance. This is called the second standard deviation. And for the price to move into the blue area to the right would have a probability of 2.2 %. This is called the third standard deviation.
But in today’s markets, it is not uncommon to see prices move three deviations much more often than forecast by the normal curve. In other words, the basic premise that price movement is random is not really the case.
So, to summarize our foray into the foundation premise of the Option Pricing Model, we see a potentially serious flaw. But that does not diminish its importance in that it deals in probabilities and not exact measurements. Thus, no matter how much the mathematicians have tried to describe randomness; it may be close…..but no cigar.
For more information on stock options, go to www.optionsunitversity.com.
Jul
14
Introduction
Chances are you’re reading this book because you’re brand new to options. You’ve heard about them but can’t really explain to someone else what they are. You’d like to start trading them, but you have lots of questions and nobody seems to have the answers you’re looking for. This book is for you!
At Options University, we believe there is only one way to teach; you must start by learning the most fundamental concepts. While it is possible to provide a quick overview and send you on your way with a false sense of confidence, we know that will only be detrimental in the long run. That is the “ready, fire, aim” approach often used by most books and instructors. Instead, we make sure you truly understand the essence of an option and what makes it different from stock. Once we examine these core competencies, we will then introduce you to some basic strategies that you can use immediately. But don’t underestimate these strategies just because they’re labeled as basic. On the contrary, the basic strategies are what often pack the most punch and are most widely used – even by professional traders. Advanced strategies, even though they appear far more complex, are just moderate extensions of the basics. If you understand the concepts presented in this book, you will make a smooth transition into advanced strategies should you choose to continue further with options trading. Most important, you will have enough knowledge to confidently use the most powerful trading tool ever to hit the financial markets.
Before we get started, let’s clear up the one unfair misconception that you have probably heard: Avoid options because they are too risky.
As you will find out, options were created to manage the risks and rewards of stock investing, which is certainly a good feature. However, if you talk to investors or traders about options you will find there are a myriad of opinions. To some investors, the word “options” suggests feelings of risk, gambling, speculation, and reckless investing. To others, options mean hedging your bet, insurance and good money management. How can the same asset cause two opposing views? The reason is that both can be correct. It depends on how you’re using the options. Credit cards are a good analogy. One person can use them to spend excessively and end up in bankruptcy while another uses them to pay for an emergency car repair after being stranded on a deserted road. Are credit cards good or bad? Just as with options, the answer depends on how they are used and managed. Be wary of people who tell you to not waste your time with options because they are too risky, because we can show you strategies that completely eliminate risk. What’s important is that you are able to separate which feature of an option is a benefit for you and which is a risk for you. A risk to someone else may be a benefit for you, and the options market will let you earn money for assuming that risk.
After reading this book, you will know which strategies are right for you and which are too risky. It all depends on your goals and risk tolerances. We want to show you how options can be used to enhance and strengthen your current investment style.
Those who choose to not learn about options may be overlooking the most important and powerful investment tool available. It is our experience that the people most skeptical of options are the ones who often see the most benefits. We believe, by the end of this book, you will find at least one new strategy that appeals to you, and that means you’ll be a little bit better than you are at this point. And that’s how good investors eventually become great – by continually getting a little bit better. At least take the time to understand options; you can always decide to not use them. But our guess is that this book will only open the doors to a new and exciting investment world you never thought possible. So let’s begin our journey and answer a frequently asked question: Why is there an options market?
Why is there an Options Market?
New traders and investors are often overwhelmed by the different financial products available. They are kept busy enough trying to understand and choose between stocks, preferred shares, bonds, mutual funds, closed-end funds, ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds), UITs (Unit Investment Trusts), REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts), and CMOs (Collateralized Mortgage Obligations).
And now you want to add options?
You must understand that whenever a new product is created, there are always new variations designed to fill slightly different needs. For example, when the Model T was first invented, it solved the broad problem of transportation. People didn’t really care what it looked like. In fact, it is rumored that Henry Ford once quipped, “Customers can have any color they want as long as it’s black.” The Model T was only meant to solve the broader issues of transportation, namely, getting from Point A to Point B.
But once the Model T appeared, others soon came to market with modifications to solve different problems. Today we have many variations such as SUVs, vans, four-wheel drive trucks, extended cabs, crew cabs, compacts, hybrids, and convertibles. While they are all forms of transportation, they fill different needs.
The financial markets are no different from any other product. As problems arise, new financial products are developed to handle them. The stock market was created as a way for publicly-traded companies to raise cash. For example, in March 1986, Microsoft had its IPO (Initial Public Offering) and sold 2.8 million shares for $21 per share. That amounted to an instant check for $58,800,000 for Microsoft. In a relatively short time and very efficiently, Microsoft created nearly 59 million dollars with which the company could grow.
The creation of the stock market solved a very important problem of raising capital but it also introduced a new problem. That problem is risk. If you buy shares of stock you are buying a piece of the company, and that purchase creates the potential for high rewards. Many investors who bought shares of Microsoft in 1986 are millionaires many times over today. But that potential for high reward comes with the potential for high loss. In early 2001, Enron was regarded as a market leader in the energy trading business and one of the largest corporations in the world. Later that year, it filed for what was to become the largest bankruptcy in United States history. Many investors lost their life savings by investing in Enron. So are stocks good or bad? Obviously, it depends on what happens to the stock’s price – and that is something we cannot know beforehand. In other words, there is risk associated with stock investing. In order to make the financial markets run smoother, it would be nice to invent ways to manage the risk involved with stock investing. And that’s exactly the problem that options solve.
To be continued…
